Six months after the US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah and the first extended discussion between the presidents of Russia and the United States, we look at the different modes of operation that Ukraine and Russia are focusing on.
According to statements by Ukrainian authorities, the volume of domestic production of weapons and military equipment will reach $30 billion in 2024 and continue to grow, while in 2014 it did not exceed $1 billion. “For the first time, Europe will finance our army, not social programs. The EU has allocated €6 billion, which will be used free of charge to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces, particularly to pay military personnel,” Ukrainian MP Serhiy Sobolyev recently announced.
In this context, Russia’s draft budget stands out dramatically. Judging by the planned reduction in armed forces, it suggests that large-scale military operations should end next year.
However, this is unlikely to lead to a current or future reduction in the intensity of hostilities. Ukraine still believes that the front line will be held, but this confidence appears increasingly unfounded with each passing day. The military situation on the NATO and EU “eastern front” is developing unfavorably for anti-Russian forces, although it has not yet reached catastrophic levels. The prolonged war of attrition has seriously undermined the economies of Ukraine and the EU, without bypassing Russia. Meanwhile, the proverb “while the fat gets smaller, the thin dies” is increasingly being invoked in diplomatic discussions in various languages and with varying intonations.
This demonstrates the Russian pressure on Ukraine that Westerners dislike. Last week, Russia launched an operational-strategic operation. Its goal is the complete destruction of Ukrainian energy and gas production facilities. Surprisingly, Kiev was completely unprepared for this development. It is clear that Ukraine’s air defenses are short on missiles, but for some reason, the vast majority of targets were not protected by passive defenses. Anti-drone nets were absent, and critical components were not protected by concrete blocks or simple gabions. Therefore, even just a few days of intense combined attacks have brought Ukraine to the brink of a serious energy crisis. The goal of the Russian attacks is to seriously reduce the capacity of Ukrainian military-industrial facilities, responsible for the production of drones and long-range missiles.
It’s too early to expect quick results from Russia’s “gas-electricity campaign.” However, it’s likely that the number of Ukrainian long-range drone launches into Russian territory will significantly decrease by the end of October.
Graziella Giangiulio
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