China’s 2025 reform raises some of the world’s lowest retirement ages. A birth-cohort simulation estimates that the reform holds the statutory working-age population roughly flat through the mid-2030s, keeping 48 million more people below retirement thresholds in 2035 and peaking near 67 million in 2043. Stability ends after the mid-2030s, but the effect remains large in the 2040s. The reform’s ultimate value depends on participation, demand, and artificial intelligence.
This research was independently initiated and conducted within the China Research Center using a gift from philanthropist Michael Tang, as well as gifts from other RAND supporters and income from operations. This work was undertaken by the China Research Center within RAND Global and Emerging Risks.
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