The U.S. Department of War’s rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) must account for how AI is reshaping the chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) risk landscape to strengthen decision advantage, enhance CBRN defense, and deter AI-enabled threats. AI’s integration introduces both opportunities and risks: It can enhance detection, decisionmaking, and crisis response yet also enable more-sophisticated or destabilizing CBRN capabilities for state and non-state actors.
These dual-use dynamics complicate traditional understandings of offense-defense balance, arms races, and strategic stability. In response, this paper presents a strategic analytic research agenda derived from five workshops convened with experts in AI safety and CBRN deterrence. The research agenda identifies key research priorities to advance understanding of AIxCBRN interactions, strengthen policy and strategic frameworks, and improve mechanisms for risk assessment, crisis management, and deterrence. It also emphasizes the need for cross-sector collaboration to ensure responsible innovation and resilience in the face of accelerating technological and geopolitical competition, particularly between the United States and China.
Establishing a robust research agenda in this domain is essential to mitigate emerging threats while leveraging AI’s potential to reinforce global and national security.
This publication is part of the RAND expert insights series. The expert insights series presents perspectives on timely policy issues.
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