Amid renewed Russian belligerence and a pattern of nuclear threats, and against the backdrop of transatlantic burden-shifting between the United States and European NATO Allies, the UK and France—as Europe’s two nuclear powers—have an opportunity to shape the future framework of nuclear deterrence in Europe.
This study seeks to inform that effort by mapping how non-nuclear European NATO Allies perceive the following:
- Russia’s evolving nuclear policy, through an analysis of the revised ‘Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence,’ issued in November 2024.
- The role of the UK and French nuclear deterrents within NATO’s current nuclear posture.
The research team employed a qualitative multi-method approach, combining a literature review, scenario development and scenario-based research interviews with 18 European non-governmental researchers and think tankers from 10 European NATO Allies to explore perceptions of the two themes outlined above. Using hypothetical crisis scenarios, the study also examines future dilemmas about NATO’s nuclear posture and the UK and French roles therein.
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