Su Mudaerji is the betting favourite when he meets Alex Perez in a flyweight rematch at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on August 29 at Shanghai’s Oriental Sports Center. The first meeting lasted less than seven minutes before an accidental groin strike halted it, leaving bettors with useful form evidence but no official winner.
Mudaerji is priced around -217 on the average moneyline across 24 sportsbooks online casino bonus bez depozita, with Perez at +182. That puts the Chinese fighter at an implied 70 percent although prices vary: Mudaerji has been available as short as -235 and Perez as high as +194.
Their May 30 bout ended as a no contest at 1:45 of round two after an accidental low blow. Until then, Mudaerji had been controlling much of the fight. He knocked Perez down, landed 26 of 53 significant strikes to Perez’s nine of 45, and completed one of two takedown attempts. Perez attempted a submission and had 32 seconds of control, but Mudaerji held a 1:11 control-time edge.
Su Mudaerji vs. Alex Perez UFC betting guide
That sequence supports the market’s lean toward Mudaerji, though it does not settle the rematch. Perez had limited time to establish his wrestling, a route that remains central to his chances. A no contest is not a win, and one abbreviated fight should not be treated as a full three-round sample ahead of the UFC Shanghai match.
Mudaerji brings a 19-7 record with one no contest, stands 5-foot-8, and owns a sizable seven-inch reach advantage over 5-foot-6 Perez. The southpaw lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute with 50 percent accuracy, absorbs 2.29 per minute, and holds a 63 percent striking defence rate. He has won his three completed fights before the Perez no contest, all by decision, over Mitch Raposo, Kevin Borjas and Jesus Aguilar.
Perez, 26-10 with one no contest, is the more active wrestler on paper. He averages 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared with Mudaerji’s 0.76, and attempts 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes. Perez’s 74 percent takedown defence is slightly higher than Mudaerji’s 73 percent, while his 65-inch reach leaves him needing to work through longer punches and kicks to reach clinch range.
The straight play is Mudaerji moneyline, but -217 is a price that requires confidence he can prevent Perez from building sustained grappling sequences. His first-fight output and reach advantage make that case, yet the line has already moved from an opening average near -224, so bettors should seek -210 or better rather than chase a worse number.
Mudaerji by knockout/TKO at +175 deserves consideration. Perez’s wrestling threat makes a decision possible, but Mudaerji already dropped him in their first encounter and Perez has been stopped by Taira and Joseph Benavidez during his UFC run. Keep the stake modest: Perez’s path to an upset is real if he turns the fight into clinches, mat returns and submission exchanges.
