Seeking the source: Biological attribution from anthrax to AI

The United States must possess the capability to determine where a biological threat came from and hold attackers accountable.

Even in a situation where an event was not deliberate but accidental, the government needs to establish the origin to put preventative measures in place and ensure the accident does not happen again. If an event occurred naturally, officials should know that information as well, so that they better understand what natural vectors could produce a catastrophic biological event.

Public health officials work to contain a biological event while investigators work out its cause, and both happen at once. Knowledge of how the event began—naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate—materially impacts whether and how law enforcement and intelligence officials react in subsequent days, weeks, and months. Even as first responders address the immediate crisis and the threat it poses to the public, evidence of an intentional attack would trigger conversations across the federal government, and ultimately up to the White House, to determine responsibility and whether measures are necessary to punish or deter the perpetrators.

Attribution can be imprecise, since it oftentimes relies on a combination of science, intelligence, and investigatory evidence. Officials can potentially accuse a suspect whose guilt is not yet supported by the evidence cannot support at that time, risking diplomatic and security fallout. The anthrax attacks that followed 9/11 show what is involved. The investigation encompassed  thousands of interviews and tens of thousands of digital documents and emails; involved dozens of laboratories. Questions about its findings persist today.

The federal government has since enhanced its capacity, but responsibility  is dispersed across agencies. The FBI leads federal criminal investigations. The Department of Homeland Security currently owns and manages the laboratory the FBI uses for its attributional work. The Secretary of Health and Human Services co-leads attribution under the 2022 National Biodefense Strategy and Implementation Plan. The intelligence community bears responsibility of its own to gather information, in some cases within hostile territory. Though processes are in place at the highest levels of government, the current approach has not comprehensively unified all these elements to ensure information reaches decision-makers in a timely manner. Such an approach requires that proper procedures, protocols, and information-sharing mechanisms are in place before a biological event occurs. The attribution apparatus must account for collection of evidence, evaluation of differing explanations, and communication of findings and conclusions. Officials also need to understand the evidentiary and intelligence thresholds for making a judgment about responsibility for a biological event.

The Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense at Atlantic Council is a privately funded entity established in 2014 to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of US biodefense efforts and to issue recommendations that foster change. Since 2015, the Commission has advocated for the uptake of its recommendations at the highest levels of the US government, through additional meetings, reports, and other activities. This is the only such body of bipartisan, former high-level policymakers to do so.​

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