Mapping Terror: Using Systems Analysis to Integrate Political, Social & Behavioral Drivers to Explain Extremists’ Violence

Since 2001, the United States has seen a persistent rise in violent attacks motivated by extremist ideologies targeting specific populations because of their identity-related characteristics. In this study, the author employs a systems analytic approach to synthesize existing definitions, theories, and drivers of extremist violence and terrorism. The research focuses on developing and demonstrating a proof-of-concept tool to assess the risk that a violent extremist group will escalate to terrorist activity. The tool integrates political, social, and behavioral factors to reveal the causal pathways that lead groups from rhetoric to violence. This dissertation aims to contribute a framework that supports policymakers and law enforcement in identifying intervention points to prevent escalation to terrorism. By offering a systematic means to evaluate and mitigate extremist threat potential, this research bridges theoretical understanding and practical counter-terrorism applications, advancing strategies to safeguard both targeted communities and democratic institutions.