No global framework of norms or governance mechanisms specifically addresses escalation risks in space arising from the dual-use nature of space systems, or their ability to support both civilian and military functions. To help address this gap, the RAND Duality in Space project convened a scenario-based workshop discussion in May 2026 in Washington, D.C. The event brought together stakeholders and experts from across the Americas region to examine the challenges posed by dual-use space systems and their associated use: which space activities participants viewed as escalatory and under what circumstances, what responses they considered justified, which mechanisms they believed sufficiently managed risk, and what challenges could complicate implementation of potential policy frameworks. These proceedings summarize key insights from the workshop and, alongside findings from additional workshops in Tokyo, Japan, and Geneva, Switzerland, will inform a broader report on policy options for developing norms and governance approaches for dual-use space systems.
The workshop tested a potential approach for categorizing escalatory activities in space, distinguishing behaviors (observable maneuvers in space, such as a satellite performing a proximity and rendezvous operation) from effects (the use of system-derived data to inform Earth-based activities, such as Earth observation data informing terrestrial military operations). Guided through two scenarios—one behavior-based and one effect-based—participants characterized baseline and escalatory events as safe, problematic, or dangerous and offered perspectives on what responses were appropriate for each risk threshold.
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