UFC Shanghai is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 29, 2026), inside Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai, China. In the main event, No. 6-ranked Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight contender Song Yadong returns to action against former title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov with big implications.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in China when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Shanghai betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Shanghai odds here).
Last week’s recap: And just like that, the streak has ended … Anthony Wint won at UFC Sacramento but did not win by knockout; instead, he submitted his opponent (watch highlights).
Let’s keep rolling below (spoiler — I’m chasing the knockout again):
In the ‘Featured bout’ of UFC Shanghai, former RIZIN Bantamweight champion Kai Asakura collides with China’s Aoriqileng in a fight that should be absolute violence for however long it lasts.
This week, I’m locking in Asakura to win by KO/TKO (-185).
It took Asakura a little while, but I think he finally found his footing in UFC.
After a rocky start to his Octagon career, Asakura looked much more like the fighter who terrorized opponents in Japan when he knocked out Cameron Smotherman in his last outing (watch highlights). More importantly, he’s back at Bantamweight, where he no longer has to drain himself getting down to 125 pounds.
And that could be huge for his power.
Asakura is one of the most dangerous and creative strikers at 135 pounds when he gets rolling. He’s ultra-aggressive, attacks from strange angles and possesses legitimate knockout power in both hands. His striking isn’t just wild aggression, either — he’s technically sharp, mixes up his attacks well and can suddenly explode into combinations before opponents have time to react.
That feels like bad news for Aoriqileng.
To his credit, “The Mongolian Murderer” is also aggressive and carries respectable power. He’s more than willing to stand in the pocket and trade, which should make this fight entertaining as hell.
Unfortunately, I think that’s exactly what Asakura wants.
Aoriqileng simply isn’t as technical or dynamic on the feet. He’s also coming off a technical knockout loss (watch it) and has now been knocked out twice during his UFC run. Against someone as fast, powerful and unpredictable as Asakura, those durability concerns are impossible to ignore.
I expect Aoriqileng to feed off the Chinese crowd and come forward early, which should create plenty of exchanges. But the longer he stands directly in front of Asakura, the more opportunities he’s giving the Japanese knockout artist to find his chin.
This should be violent for as long as it lasts.
And when the smoke clears, I’m expecting Japan to spoil China’s night.
Asakura’s aggression can work against him. He takes risks, leaves openings, and Aoriqileng absolutely has enough power to make him pay if he gets reckless. Fighting a hometown opponent in Shanghai also adds another wrinkle if the fight somehow reaches the judges.
Give me Kai Asakura by KO/TKO (-185) as this week’s “Weekend Lock.”
Kai Asakura via TKO/KO/DQ: -185
Kai Asakura via submission: +1800
Kai Asakura via decision: +400
Aoriqileng via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
Aoriqileng via submission: +2500
Aoriqileng via decision: +800
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Shanghai: “Nurmagomedov vs. Song” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
