In 2021, Andrew Ivey wrote, “‘I Have Other Data’: The Guardia Nacional and the Entrenchment of Mexico’s Militarization’,” where he warned Mexico was headed toward a militarization trap. Five years later, amidst increased pressure from the Trump administration and the election of a new Mexican president, we asked Andrew to revisit his arguments.Image: Sitio Oficial de Andrés Manuel López ObradorIn your 2021 article, you warned that Mexico was headed toward an entrenched militarization trap. In 2024, the Chamber of Deputies passed a constitutional reform formally placing the National Guard under military control, with President Claudia Sheinbaum embracing the change. Has formalizing militarization in the Constitution changed anything in practice?The constitutional change locks in what was already happening on the ground, but also goes a little further. It’s right to note the transition from de facto to legal and formal military control. The National Guard is also under the control of the Secretariat of Defense, which is headed by an active-duty general. Guardia officers and troops are even educated in army universities. The consequence of fully militarized federal-level policing means that future post-Sheinbaum governments will have very few — if any — opportunities to create alternative policing institutions. The constitutional change has locked Mexico into a path of militarization that frankly is much deeper than other large democracies in the region.However, it remains an open question if the Guardia can be retrained and repurposed. Though the Guardia is in the Secretariat of Defense’s educational system, attending the same schools, it could very well be that their curriculum is more police-like, or perhaps even gendarmerie-like, than soldier-like. That would be one significant step away from relying on soldiers and marines for public security, and even then, it would remain to be seen how a force educated in the military system, instructed and
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In 2021, Andrew Ivey wrote, “‘I Have Other Data’: The Guardia Nacional and the Entrenchment of Mexico’s Militarization’,” where he warned Mexico was headed toward a militarization trap. Five years later, amidst increased pressure from the Trump administration and the election of a new Mexican president, we asked Andrew to revisit his arguments.Image: Sitio Oficial de Andrés Manuel López ObradorIn your 2021 article, you warned that Mexico was headed toward an entrenched militarization trap. In 2024, the Chamber of Deputies passed a constitutional reform formally placing the National Guard under military control, with President Claudia Sheinbaum embracing the change. Has
