In summer 2023, the U.S. Air Force announced a funding shortfall driven by higher-than-projected costs. This fiscal pressure, combined with a May 2025 U.S. Department of War tasking to reduce the frequency of permanent changes of station (PCSs), led the Air Force Personnel Center to task RAND with exploring options for extending assignment durations. The analysis revealed that reducing the frequency of PCS moves could achieve significant cost savings from the $1.3 billion annual PCS budget for executing operational, rotational, unit, and training moves: Extending certain overseas tours would generate $186 million in annual savings, and enforcing five-year tour lengths for many assignments in the continental United States would generate $240 million in annual savings. Implementation would require navigating complex trade-offs and substantial cultural changes.
The authors conducted a comprehensive analysis using multiple methods: reviewing current assignment policies; analyzing cost, readiness, and retention data from personnel records and exit surveys; developing new analytical tools, including a Microsoft Excel–based Simple Assignment Model using queuing theory; conducting stakeholder workshops and discussions with 25 subject-matter experts from Headquarters Air Force and the Air Force Personnel Center and from career field managers; and examining assignment practices in other military services.
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