In 2022, Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach wrote, “After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons,” where they explore India’s various defense systems acquisition relationships. Four years later, amid changing geopolitical dynamics and Russia’s ongoing war, we asked them to revisit their arguments.Image: Creative Commons, Flickr user cell105In your 2022 article, “After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons?,” you argued Russia was struggling to meet its weapons export commitments due to a buildup of debt, sanctions, and battlefield losses. In 2026, has Russia’s position changed from strained to structurally incapable as an exporter, or is it still scraping by? We see evidence that Russia’s defense industrial base continues to weaken. Russia’s overall manufacturing capacity is declining according to a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies report due to a shortage of skilled labor, as a result of migration and war, and declining investments. The Russian war economy now accounts for approximately 7 percent of GDP based on Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data and approximately 32 percent of the 2025 total federal budget. The unprecedented fiscal expansion comes despite President Vladimir Putin’s public declarations to cut defensing spending. The extensive spending has created dislocations in supply chains across industries and culminates in two thorny, structural difficulties: the lack of availability of machine tools and high technology components. China has supplied $10.3 billion worth machinery and electronics to Russia. China has also supplied components like microchips necessary to produce the intermediate range ballistic missile Oreshnik and the short range ballistic missile Iskander-M. In fact, Russia is now importing most of its machine tools from China.Russian industrial decline is also visible in the export market. France replaced Russia as the second largest arms exporter by value. At the Feb. 2026 Singapore Air Show, Russia did not exhibit a single platform, i.e., airplanes, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles. However, it has acquired a deal with
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In 2022, Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach wrote, “After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons,” where they explore India’s various defense systems acquisition relationships. Four years later, amid changing geopolitical dynamics and Russia’s ongoing war, we asked them to revisit their arguments.Image: Creative Commons, Flickr user cell105In your 2022 article, “After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons?,” you argued Russia was struggling to meet its weapons export commitments due to a buildup of debt, sanctions, and battlefield losses. In 2026, has Russia’s position changed from strained to structurally incapable as an exporter, or is it still scraping by? We see evidence
