Submarine Acquisition Programmes in NATO

The heightening of global tensions to a level not seen since the end of the Cold War is placing renewed emphasis on the acquisition of ‘high end’ warfighting weaponry. In the maritime sector, this trend is particularly evident in a significant increase in submarine acquisition to stabilise and, ultimately increase, underwater force structures. This status report provides a broad overview of the programmes for crewed submersibles currently being pursued by NATO fleets.

United States

The US Navy operates by far the largest NATO submarine force. As of the end of 2025, a total of 14 nuclear-powered strategic missile submarines (SSBNs), four nuclear-powered guided missile submarines (SSGNs) and 48 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) were in commission. The navy currently has live construction programmes for significant numbers of both SSBNs and SSNs. This is putting the relevant industrial base under significant pressure.

Construction of SSNs is focused on the longstanding Virginia (SSN-774) class, the first of which was procured in fiscal year (FY) 1998. A total of 41 had been authorised as of FY2025 and acquisition is currently expected to continue through to at least FY2039 at an approximate ‘drumbeat’ of two boats each year. Assembly is shared between General Dynamics Electric Boat of Groton, Connecticut and Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Newport News shipyard in Virginia. Each shipbuilder is responsible for building discrete parts of all submarines, with assembly of the nuclear reactor compartment and final integration split evenly between the two facilities. The Virginia class has been constructed in a series of progressively im- proved iterations known as ‘Blocks’, the most recent of which is Block VI. From Arizona (SSN-803), the second unit of Block V, the submarines are being stretched with the incorporation of a Virginia Payload Module (VPM) that provides a significant increase in missile capacity. Current unit cost is around US$ 4.5 billion (€ 3.8 billion).

In FY2021, the US Navy began procurement of the new Columbia (SSBN-826) class. Twelve of these boats will eventually replace the current flotilla of 14 Ohio (SSBN-726) strategic submarines at a cost of US$ 126 billion (€107 billion) in what is regarded as the navy’s top priority programme. As is the case for the Virginias, construction will be shared between Electric Boat and Newport News but the former yard will be responsible for final assembly of all units. Newport News will gain some compensation for this decision by undertaking a greater share of Virginia class assembly. Two Columbia class submarines have been authorised to date. It is planned to procure the remaining ten at a rate of one each year from FY2026 onwards. The simultaneous construction of Virginia and Columbia submarines has revealed the difficulty inherent in ramping up submarine production after the reductions of the post-Cold War era. Recent deliveries of Virginia class boats have been running at around 1.2 each year, resulting in an increasing production backlog, whilst delivery of the lead member of the Columbia class is reportedly running up to 17 months behind schedule. Significant investment in both capital infrastructure and workforce are being made to improve industrial performance, but it is unclear at this stage as to what extent this will be successful.

Canada

Canada currently fields a small underwater flotilla of four Victoria – formerly British Royal Navy Upholder class patrol submarines (SSKs). Plans for replacement of this class are being developed under the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP), which was established in 2021. This will replace the existing boats from the mid-2030s onwards, with a considerable increase to ‘up to 12’ new submarines currently envisaged under a programme reportedly valued at CAD 60 billion (€ 37 billion).

In a major decision announced in August 2025, the Canadian government revealed that Germany’s TKMS and South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean had been shortlisted to provide the new submarines. The TKMS proposal is based on the Type 212CD design developed for the German and Norwegian navies whilst Hanwha Ocean is offering a variant of the Republic of Korea Navy’s KSS-III design. The latter bid benefits from a teaming agreement with Babcock International’s Canadian subsidiary, which is responsible for maintaining the existing Victoria class boats. The timing of the selection of a final contractor has yet to be announced.

United Kingdom

The British Royal Navy’s (RN’s) submarine flotilla comprised four Vanguard class SSBNs and six Astute class SSNs at the end of 2025. Achilles, the seventh and final member of the class, remains under construction at BAE Systems’ Barrow-in Furness shipyard.

The main current British submarine programme is for four Dreadnought class strategic submarines, which will replace the Vanguard class on a numerical like-for-like basis. Fabrication of all four of these SSBNs is now underway at Barrow following a ceremonial first steel cutting ceremony for the fourth boat, HMS King George V, on 22 September 2025. It is intended that the class will start to enter service in the early 2030s. Overall project cost is budgeted at GBP 41 billion (€ 47 billion), including a GBP 10 billion contingency. As at the time of the latest official statements in May 2025 – despite considerable concerns over delays and€ cost overruns – the programme was reported to be running on time and to budget.

The Dreadnought class will be followed into production by the SSN-AUKUS (SSN-A) nuclear-powered attack submarines being acquired under the so-called Pillar 1 of the Australia- UK-US AUKUS defence partnership. SSN-A submarines will be built for both the RN and the Royal Australian Navy at, respectively, Barrow and a new submarine construction facility at Osborne in South Australia, with reactors for all units produced by Rolls-Royce in Derby. The programme entered a GBP 4 billion (€ 4.6 billion) Detailed Design and Long Lead (D2L2) phase in 2023 that will take the project through 27 to initial fabrication. It is anticipated that the first RN SSN-A will be delivered in late 2030s, with the lead Royal Australian Navy boat arriving early in the following decade. The British 2025 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) envisages up to 12 SSNAs being built for the RN.

France

France’s submarine force structure is similar to its British neighbour, encompassing four SSBNs and five SSNs at the time of writing. The SSN element of the underwater force is currently in the middle of transitioning from the original six-strong, Cold War-era Rubis class to the same number of considerably larger ‘Barracuda’ or Suffren class boats.

Built by Naval Group in Cherbourg, the Suffren class’s design went through a long gestation period due to post-Cold War era economies. The lead boat was eventually ordered in December 2006, entering operational service in June 2022 after considerable pre- and post-delivery trials. Two further boats joined the active fleet in 2024 and 2025, with the remaining three expected to follow between 2027 and 2030. Unlike their current American and British nuclear-powered counterparts, the French boats’ reactors are fuelled by low-enriched uranium, necessitating periodic refuelling during their service lives. A follow-on SNLE 3G or third generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine programme to replace the French Navy’s strategic submarines is already underway. This was formally initiated in 2021 and was followed by a first steel-cutting ceremony for the lead submarine at Cherbourg in March 2024. The as yet unnamed boat is due to enter service in 2035 and will be followed by her three sisters at roughly five-yearly intervals. The full cost of the programme has yet to be announced. Naval Group’s Cherbourg facility is also occupied supporting a number of significant export contracts for both NATO and non-NATO fleets.

The Netherlands

The Royal Netherlands Navy’s protracted efforts to secure the replacement of its quartet of Walrus class SSKs reached a successful conclusion with the signature of a contract with France’s Naval Group to acquire four diesel-electric ‘Blacksword’ variants of its ‘Barracuda’ family in September 2024. The award followed the design’s provisional selection for the Dutch requirement in March that year after a fiercely-fought competition in which TKMS’s Type 212CD and Saab’s enlarged C718 iteration of its A26 design had also been shortlisted. The submarines will be known as the Orka class in Dutch service. Total programme cost as of March 2024 was € 5.65 billion.

The agreement with Naval Group envisages the delivery of the first two members of the class in 2034, ten years after contract signature. Although it appears that the submarines will be assembled at the company’s Cherbourg yard, Royal IHC will supply modular structures for the boats and other Dutch companies will be important sub-contractors. It is expected that fabrication will start in 2026 to meet the planned delivery schedule. Previous delays in selecting the successful design mean that two of the existing SSKs will be laid up to provide spare parts for their sisters until the new boats arrive, with Walrus already decommissioned.

Germany/Norway

Germany and Norway both currently operate six-strong flotillas of German-built SSKs, respectively the Type 210 Ula and Type 212A class designs. Both these classes will be ultimately replaced by TKMS Type 212CD (‘Common Design’) submarines under a joint procurement programme. Despite the shared Type 212 nomenclature, the Type 212CD is much larger than the previous Type 212A and is essentially a new design.

The scope of the Type 212CD programme has been progressively expanded since an initial € 5.5 billion contract for four Norwegian and two German members of the class was first signed with TKMS in July 2021. In December 2024, Germany exercised an option to increase its order from two to six submarines at a reported cost of € 4.7 billion. Subsequently, in December 2025, the Norwegian government announced its intention to increase its own order to six submarines, subject to receipt of parliamentary approval. This will cost NOK 46 billion (€ 3.9 billion). The significant price increase from the initial order was partly explained by inflation, system and weapon upgrades, and a financial contribution towards the cost of establishing a second production line in Germany. This is required to ensure timely delivery given TKMS’ heavy workload fulfilling both domestic and export requirements. The project encompasses significant Norwegian industrial participation, including the delivery of ORCCA combat systems through the Kongsberg-Atlas Elektronic kta Naval Systems consortium.

Fabrication of the first Norwegian Type 212CD commenced at TKMS Kiel in September 2023. She is expected to be delivered in 2029 and will be followed by her first three sisters between 2030 and 2035. The first two German Type 212CDs should commission in 2031 and 2034. The Deutsche Marine’s ‘Vision 2035+’ force structure plan ultimately anticipates up to nine of the class being ordered, whilst efforts continue to secure export orders.

Italy

Italy’s submarine force comprises four Type 212A Todaro class SSKs built by Fincantieri in partnership with Germany’s TKMS and four older Sauro class boats. The older submarines will be replaced on a numerical like-for-like basis with the U212 NFS (Near Future Submarine) design, which is now under construction.

The U212 NFS is an evolved Type 212A design that has been developed by Fincantieri. It encompasses a stretched hull, hydrodynamic improvements, lithium-ion batteries, and upgraded combat systems and sensors. Fincantieri was awarded a EYR 1.35 billion contract for the first two submarines and associated training and support in February 2021. Two options for additional units and capability upgrades were exercised in July 2023 and June 2024 at a total cost of € 1.16 billion. Fabrication of all four submarines is now underway at the group’s Muggiano shipyard following a first steel cutting ceremony for the last boat in December 2025.

Deliveries of the four members of the U212 NFS class are scheduled to take place from 2027 to 2032. It is expected that they will be followed by a larger pair of U212 NFS EVO class boats which, in turn, will provide a technological bridge to a planned NGS Next Generation Submarine.

Sweden/Poland

Sweden’s current submarine procurement is focused on the construction of two A26 Blekinge class SSKs. These will replace the sole remaining A17 class submarine, Södermanland, and complement the three modernised A19 Gotland class boats, thereby increasing the submarine force from four to five units.

After a convoluted and protracted development process, the initial order for the Blekinge class was placed with Saab’s Kockums subsidiary in June 2015. At that time, it was expected that deliveries would take place in 2022 and 2024 at a cost of SEK 7.6 billion. An associated contract encompassing mid-life upgrades for the Gotland class was intended to reduce the risk of much of the technology destined for the new submarines. However, delivery of the Blekinge class has proved to be much more difficult and expensive than initially envisaged, leading to substantial contract renegotiations in August 2021 and October 2025. It is now expected the submarines will be delivered in 2031 and 2033 at a total cost of SEK 25 billion (€ 2.3 billion). Sweden has made considerable efforts to export the A26 and evolved variants. After several setbacks, these finally gained success in November 2025 when it was announced that Poland had selected the A26 design as the basis for its own ‘Orka’ submarine replacement programme. Although a formal contract has yet to be signed, it appears that an order for three boats is planned for delivery during the 2030s.

Spain

Spain’s underwater force has been reduced to just two SSKs due to the considerable problems that have previously been experienced with executing its S-80 submarine programme. Intended to deliver the country’s first truly indigenous submarines, the project first received government authorisation in 2003. At that time, it was expected that four S-80 submarines, all equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP), would be delivered at annual intervals between 2011 and 2014.

Implementation of the programme at Navantia’s Cartagena shipyard was subsequently beset by widely-publicised problems that included a loss of buoyancy due to unexpected weight growth. These are now largely in the past and the lead boat, Isaac Peral, was commissioned in November 2023. The second member of the class was launched in October 2025 and two sister boats are under construction for delivery before the end of 2030. This pair will be the first members of the class equipped with AIP from build after delays arising from difficulties with developing the plant.

Whilst Navantia’s perseverance looks set to allow successful completion of the S-80 project, the programme cost of around € 4.3 billion is more than double the initial estimate. Its past problems have also seemingly hindered the design’s prospects in export competitions despite its status as a large, modern design suitable for those navies seeking an oceanic type SSK capability.

Greece

Greece’s submarine inventory encompasses four modern Type 214 Papanikolis class AIP-equipped SSKs and five older Type 209 submarines of various ages and configurations. The Hellenic Navy’s future plans include mid-life upgrades for the Papanikolis class and replacement of the older submarines by a new class of four boats. This procurement is still in its early stages due to the priority being given to surface fleet modernisation.

Turkey

The Turkish Navy operates NATO’s largest fleet of diesel-electric patrol submarines. All of these are of German design, encompassing four Type 209/1200 and eight Type 209/1400 boats, as well as two, more recent Type 214 AIP-equipped units. Known locally as the Reis class, the Type 214s form part of a six boat, € 2.1 billion order placed in 2009 that provided for local construction at the Gölcük Naval Shipyard under a transfer of technology arrangement. Project realisation has taken longer than anticipated, possibly because of the incorporation of significant quantities of Turkish-developed equipment in the new class. The first two Reis class submarines were commissioned in 2024 and 2025. The third was launched in May 2025 and the remaining trio are all under construction.

Future submarine production will be focused on a new ‘MİLDEN’ national submarine, the first of which commenced fabrication at Gölcük at the start of 2025. The fully indigenous design benefits from considerable input from Turkey’s expanding defence industrial base, including defence conglomerate Aselsan. The project is representative both of the evolving nature of NATO’s submarine industry and also the increased attention being paid to modernising underwater forces across the alliance.

Conrad Waters

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