The Russian defense-industrial complex is losing markets, undergoing technical degradation, and becoming increasingly dependent on customers from Africa and the Middle East. In the near term, export losses are expected to accelerate even more.
According to intelligence, the situation indicates a decline in the resilience of supply chains and defense-sector deals.
“Rostec’s CEO Sergei Chemezov acknowledged a further collapse of Russian arms exports. By 2022 Russia had been receiving about $14 billion a year, but in 2024 revenues fell catastrophically. Data from the Jamestown Foundation confirm rapid decline: $12.5 billion in 2021, $8 billion in 2022, $3 billion in 2023 and only $1 billion in 2024.”
“The geography of deliveries is also narrowing: from 47 countries in 2018–2022 to 33 in 2024, with most in Asia and Oceania. The largest buyers – India, China and Kazakhstan – are also cutting purchases.”
Although Chemezov announces a future recovery and an order portfolio of over $60 billion, a significant portion of contracts is not confirmed and depends on clients with low creditworthiness. Without access to financing, these deals are often more like political statements than real exports.
In the context of events on the international scene, Russia continues to seek new markets: at the Dubai Air Show 2025, representatives of the defense sector stated that many samples advertised as modern are, in practice, mock-ups, indicating significant technological lag and a shortage of combat-ready products.
According to intelligence assessments, the situation in Russia’s defense sector is characterized by systemic problems: a decline in technological potential, falling demand in key markets, and growing dependence on countries with lower purchasing power. If the trend continues, Russia risks further reducing its weight on the global arms market in the coming years.
Prospects and implications
Experts emphasize that an inadequately developed technological base and shrinking demand can lead to a further decline in Russia’s positions on the global arms market. Dependence on countries with limited financial resources and the lack of stable contracts cast doubt on the prospects for a rapid export recovery.
