Under the sea’s surface, a potential battle is brewing. This battle, centered on sabotage and deception, involves energy and telecommunication infrastructure being held at risk by a mixture of adversarial, opportunistic geopolitical strategies for expansive influence and control of critical resources, trade, and core industries. The ability to observe this conflict is also more constrained. Operating below the ocean’s surface is not like operating in other domains: Maneuvering is complex, and the terrain is highly dynamic.
The authors describe the core elements of a deterrence framework against sea-based attacks and propose that an operationally formalized approach to competition be implemented for the undersea domain. The obscured, close-range, and often directly physical nature of this competition is cognitively distinct from other domains. Competition in this domain is opportunistic and carried out via a combination of low-technology and highly precise actions. In this context, the authors explore the primary issues related to this undersea knife fight, deterrence challenges from other domains, and a way to structure options for deterrence for operational use and strategic assessments.
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