The Controlled Cannabis Supply Chain Experiment in the Netherlands entered its experimental phase on 7 April 2025. In ten intervention municipalities, coffeeshops are required to sell only cannabis products supplied by licensed growers participating in the experiment. The experiment aims to assess whether a closed and regulated cannabis supply chain can be established and whether any effects can be observed in areas such as product quality, public health, safety and criminality.
This report presents the findings of the first follow-up measurement (T1), covering the period from the start of the experimental phase until the first quarter of 2026. The study examines developments in the functioning of the regulated supply chain, cannabis availability and prices in coffeeshops, consumer purchasing and consumption behaviour, quality of life around coffeeshops, the illicit cannabis market, and public health indicators. Trends in the intervention municipalities are compared with those in ten comparison municipalities that continue to operate under the existing toleration policy.
Data collection included 85 interviews with stakeholders, including municipalities, coffeeshop owners, growers, transporters and supervisory authorities; visitor counts at 143 coffeeshops; surveys among 865 coffeeshop visitors and 441 people living and/or working near coffeeshops; analysis of menus from 134 coffeeshops; a continuous online survey among consumers purchasing cannabis on the illicit market; and analysis of police registration data. Quantitative data were analysed using difference-in-differences methods, while qualitative data were analysed thematically.
As the experiment has been operational for a relatively short period, the findings should be considered exploratory. Nevertheless, the report provides the first systematic assessment of how the regulated cannabis supply chain is functioning in practice and identifies early developments, opportunities and challenges associated with the experiment.
Closed cannabis supply chain
Stakeholders generally report positive experiences with the closed cannabis supply chain. The experiment has improved transparency regarding where cannabis is produced and under what conditions, strengthened cooperation between stakeholders, and provided greater oversight of production, transport and sales through registration and tracking systems.
At the same time, respondents identified several implementation challenges. During the initial phase, coffeeshops experienced shortages of regulated products, particularly hash, and limited product diversity. Stakeholders also reported uncertainties regarding packaging requirements, product information, advertising rules and supervisory responsibilities. While the track-and-trace system is widely regarded as essential for maintaining a closed supply chain, it was initially perceived as administratively burdensome and technically challenging, although many of these startup issues appear to have diminished over time.
Cannabis products available in coffeeshops
The diversity of cannabis products offered in intervention municipalities increased substantially compared with the baseline measurement. Coffeeshops offered a wider variety of weed, hash and joints, while the availability of edibles, concentrates and vapes increased markedly. Product diversity grew more strongly in intervention municipalities than in comparison municipalities.
Price developments varied by product type. The average price of weed, especially nederwiet, declined more strongly in intervention municipalities than in comparison municipalities, while the average price of hash increased. Prices of pre-rolled joints rose modestly in both research groups.
Coffeeshop visitors and cannabis use
No significant changes were observed in the number of coffeeshop visitors or the frequency of visits. Visitors continued to choose coffeeshops primarily because of location, atmosphere, customer service and product quality.
There are indications that customers in intervention municipalities purchased larger quantities of weed per transaction and assessed the price-quality ratio of weed more positively than at baseline. However, no significant changes were found in overall cannabis use patterns, self-reported health, cannabis-related health incidents or indicators of problematic cannabis use. Although customers purchased more weed per transaction, there is no evidence that cannabis use frequency increased.
Quality of life, nuisance and safety
People living and working near coffeeshops continued to report generally positive levels of quality of life and safety. Average assessments of the local living environment remained comparable to national benchmarks.
Some respondents reported nuisance related to loitering, traffic congestion and noise, with such incidents reported slightly more often in intervention municipalities. However, no clear evidence emerged that the experiment affected public disorder, nuisance or safety. Stakeholders generally described public order as stable, and no clear increase in cannabis-related crime or disorder was observed during the first year of the experimental phase.
Illegal cannabis market
The illegal cannabis market remains active alongside the regulated market. Lower prices, favourable value for money and the possibility of purchasing larger quantities remain the primary reasons for buying cannabis outside coffeeshops. Delivery services and mobile-phone dealers continue to be the most common supply channels.
Few substantial changes were observed in purchasing motives or consumer experiences. Illegally purchased cannabis continued to be rated positively in terms of price-quality ratio and perceived product quality. One notable development was an increase in the quantity of hash purchased per illicit transaction in intervention municipalities, which may be related to the limited availability of regulated hash during the early stages of the experiment. Overall, however, no clear evidence was found that the experiment has yet substantially affected the size, pricing or functioning of the illegal cannabis market.
The research described in this report was commissioned by the Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) and conducted by Breuer&Intraval, RAND Europe and the Trimbos Institute.
This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
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