Amazon Leo just won approval from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to develop and deploy more than five thousand direct-to-device (D2D) satellites.
The decision coincides with an April 2026 announcement that the FCC would encourage the growing D2D market by clearing operating permits and establishing exclusive D2D spectrum grants. Currently, there are eight active US companies specializing in D2D telecommunication satellites, and many are partnering with major telecommunications providers like AT&T and T-Mobile.
Still, getting regulatory approval is not the same as getting satellites into orbit. When it comes to full-fledged service in the United States and internationally, SpaceX reigns supreme. And Amazon Leo and other would-be competitors face an ironic bottleneck that SpaceX does not: access to space.
Why D2D
D2D technologies allow satellites to bypass physical infrastructure to connect directly to ordinary mobile phones through a network provider, thereby extending connectivity beyond the reach of terrestrial networks. Beyond its cost-effectiveness, D2D could therefore bring connectivity to rural and remote communities and provide backup in disaster zones. Recent earthquakes in Venezuela and Colombia have exposed how damaged or inadequate communications infrastructure can complicate emergency coordination and internet access. US company Global Star has been providing D2D satellite cell service for Apple’s Emergency SOS, while Lynk Global’s backup network in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands shows how satellite connectivity can fill the gap when natural disasters knock out ground networks.
The stakes are also competitive. American companies currently lead the D2D race, owning 45.9 percent of all global D2D connections, but China is already testing the technology and is planning five major megaconstellations ranging from ten thousand to more than fifteen thousand satellites for deployment by 2035. Maintaining the US lead will therefore depend on more than creating competitive systems. Companies will also need to launch them at scale.
Launch capacity as a strategic constraint
The most immediate constraint is launch capacity. At the 2023 World Satellite Business Week, SpaceX’s dominance in the launch industry was already being described as a “major chokepoint,” since companies had few reliable options other than SpaceX for launching their satellites.
Three years later, that warning is looking prescient. Dependence on SpaceX as one of the few major launch providers has sparked concerns, particularly as transporter reservations, which allow companies to launch their space systems aboard a SpaceX rocket, are nearly fully booked through early 2029.
This issue goes beyond physical capacity. SpaceX is a vertically integrated company, meaning it can both manufacture and deploy its satellites internally. That stronghold gives it an incentive to limit competition even when launch capacity is scarce. Already, 80 percent of SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket missions have been devoted to building out its own Starlink satellite network. Demand for commercial launch capacity is increasingly outstripping supply, potentially delaying D2D satellite deployments.
The state of rocket competition
Possible challengers to SpaceX’s dominance are Rocket Lab and United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing. But neither approaches the scale of SpaceX. As of 2026, the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket has completed 660 missions, while Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, dedicated to launching smaller satellites, has launched a mere 91 times. Meanwhile, ULA has completed 110 successful missions.
Despite these successes, alternative providers still do not offer enough capacity to meet projected satellite demand. As of April, industry experts are tracking the anticipated launch of 41,000 new satellites over the next eight years.
A 2026 Commercial Space Federation report estimates that to meet demand, the industry may need to launch as many as seven thousand satellites per year—a level the current market cannot yet satisfy. Apart from the scale of demand, satellite companies have practical reasons to continue to choose SpaceX. Falcon 9’s reusability drives down the cost of deploying satellites, making it the most financially viable option. Coupled with the company’s experience, these cost advantages make SpaceX an attractive provider. As long as the launch market remains concentrated in one company building its own competing constellation, emerging providers will likely continue to face significant bottlenecks.
So, what can be done?
Addressing the launch bottleneck and promoting the D2D sector’s growth will require a more competitive and resilient commercial space ecosystem.
First, satellite companies should pursue more joint ventures. SpaceX’s launch dominance is further solidified by its vertical integration. To address US launch-capacity bottlenecks, satellite companies should pursue deeper partnerships with rocket launch providers to better integrate satellite manufacturing and launch capacity. Thales Alenia Space, Airbus, and Leonardo had the right idea in agreeing to a joint venture in 2025, but their cooperation covered only workforce, satellites, and in-space services—not launch.
If launch-capable companies expand into different sectors through joint D2D satellite ventures, they can tap into a secondary market that increases their revenue while bringing satellite providers a step closer to orbit.
Second, D2D companies should not place all their eggs in one basket. They should diversify their launch providers to reduce their exposure to capacity constraints and schedule disruptions. Khalid Al Naqbi, vice president of product and engineering at Space42, a UAE state-backed space technology company, emphasizes that satellite operators evaluate launch providers using a balanced set of criteria, including mission assurance, reliability, schedule availability, technical heritage, cost, and overall program risk.
As Al Naqbi told me, “The focus is always the technology itself. We evaluate proven performance, reliability, and heritage because the objective is to reduce technical, schedule, and financial risk throughout the program lifecycle.”
Third, D2D providers can compete by offering sovereignty-friendly services. Bolivia’s decision last year to push back on Starlink’s entry over sovereignty concerns, along with the European Commission’s recent push to “buy more European” space infrastructure, points to a growing push for telecommunications sovereignty.
In September 2025, Space42 and Viasat announced plans to form Equatys, a jointly held venture and sovereignty-friendly D2D alternative that commits to national spectrum allocation and implementing a shared infrastructure model for national carriers. Moreover, Luxembourg’s SES is partnering with Lynk Global, while AST SpaceMobile is collaborating with Britain’s Vodafone to expand D2D services in Europe. If D2D companies offer governments greater control over spectrum and infrastructure, they may be better positioned to compete with Starlink.
Getting D2D into orbit
FCC approval alone will not get thousands of D2D satellites to the finish line. Without a sturdy launch supply chain, US D2D companies risk delays that could slow the sector’s expansion and weaken US commercial space leadership.
Industry leaders should prioritize making their products operational at scale so the sector can deliver the connectivity revolution it promises.
Olivia Torres is a project assistant at the Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center.
The GeoTech Center champions positive paths forward that societies can pursue to ensure new technologies and data empower people, prosperity, and peace.
Further reading
Image: Credit: Eric Stone via Unsplash
