The Weaponisation of Space and the Prospects for Insecurity Beyond Earth

As orbital dual‑use infrastructure proliferates through the expanding global space economy, states and private actors are increasingly taking advantage of the blurred line between the civilian and military use of space technologies. Given that commercial and governmental capabilities are increasingly tightly intertwined, and that orbital systems are “dual‑use by design”, it has become inherently difficult to determine the true intentions guiding the deployment of a space asset, thus making it hard to determine who should be held accountable for its actions. These challenges create an environment where the purpose, control and end‑use of space assets remain ambiguous. Given the lack of robust governance for space systems, space actors have the room to strategically use that ambiguity to their advantage. Whilst the dependence of military actors on commercial satellite constellations, launch systems and private upstream or downstream data services can exacerbate the use of this ambiguity, it also embeds systemic vulnerabilities into national security architectures. Together, these trends transform space into a domain where uncertainty can become both a strategic tool of competition, but also heighten the risks of miscalculation, escalation and cross‑domain instability.