Forecasting is an analytic tool used to mitigate the risk of surprise because of an uncertain future by collecting quantitative probabilities about a specific future event. In this report, the authors compare two forecasting methodologies—the Delphi method and crowdsourced forecasting—using the context of techno-economic competition and the People’s Republic of China’s efforts to indigenize lithography production capabilities.
Lithography is a crucial process in semiconductor manufacturing that uses light to print intricate patterns on silicon wafers and make computer chips powering modern electronic devices, including those that run artificial intelligence technologies.
In fall 2024, the authors posed two questions to (1) industry experts and academics using the Delphi method during a workshop and (2) RAND’s crowdsourced forecasting platform (known as the RAND Forecasting Initiative). The authors asked forecasters to provide probability estimates to evaluate whether China will be able to procure and operate deep ultraviolet and extreme ultraviolet lithography machines for making cutting-edge computer chips by 2026 and 2030, respectively.
In this report, the authors share their process for and results from comparing the two forecasting methodologies, offering recommendations for researchers’ future efforts and for policymakers making decisions under uncertainty.
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