This paper aims to inform artificial intelligence (AI) contingency planning under the premise that preserving strategic optionality for future U.S.-China engagement serves U.S. interests. Although current geopolitical competition, deep mutual distrust, and the strategic stakes involved might make bilateral AI cooperation neither feasible nor sensible in the near term, this analysis examines what frameworks and mechanisms would be required if circumstances changed. The author describes five lines of effort grounded in national interests that could foster a stable, predictable international environment for AI development and deployment. Understanding how cooperation could work — even if it proves unnecessary or unattainable — can help policymakers preserve flexibility in an uncertain technological landscape.
This publication is part of the RAND expert insights series. The expert insights series presents perspectives on timely policy issues.
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