For the last four years, policymakers in Washington and European capitals have been consumed by a single question: how to respond to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Their focus is understandable. Russia’s attack on its neighbor is the greatest threat to European security since U.S. and Soviet tanks stood off in Berlin over 60 years earlier. As a result, NATO allies have sent Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars in military, economic, and humanitarian assistance to prevent it from losing the war and collapsing. The Europeans have received waves of refugees and, together with the Americans, enacted tough sanctions against Russia. Facing pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, leaders across the alliance have held a series of summits to try to end the fighting.
But the resolution of the conflict, whatever its contours, will not put an end to the forces it has unleashed. Indeed, a cease-fire could mark the start of an even more dangerous era. Once the guns fall silent, Russia and Ukraine will still be locked in a tense confrontation. Moscow will rearm and likely increase its destabilizing activities across the continent. Europe will keep spending more on defense, disavowing the integration it once pursued with Russia and adopting a more hawkish posture. The United States might try to disentangle itself from the standoff, but its economic and political stakes in Europe will make a full withdrawal impossible. There will, in short, be little communication and much suspicion between NATO and Russia.
This is hardly a recipe for a new long peace. Quite the opposite: the risk of a direct conflict between Russia and Western states will remain unacceptably high. With prolonged distrust, ongoing military buildups, minimal communication, a gutted security architecture, and continued Kremlin provocations, there will be no shortage of scenarios in which a small spark could lead to a continental conflagration. The odds of war could grow especially high if the transatlantic alliance frays or even collapses.
Policymakers in the United States and Europe must not allow that to happen. Even as they struggle to end Europe’s current war, they must begin working to prevent the next one. NATO should accept that there’s no returning to the pre-2022 world and develop new ways to manage its relationship with the Kremlin. Otherwise, the Americans and the Europeans might find themselves in a third global conflict, with the continent once again the central battlefield.
