China and the United States are developing technology for both artificial intelligence (AI) and uncrewed aircraft systems (UASs). Both countries will be able to fill the demand in other countries for these systems. AI and UAS technologies, particularly those with dual uses, are advancing with increasing speed, but export controls lag. This deficiency in regulations can stifle appropriate national security, industry autonomy—and thus technological advances—and coordinated integration of the two technologies. In this report, authors review current export control systems for AI and UASs, examine their effectiveness, and consider how the United States could form a balanced system of export controls for AI and UASs. The report focuses on dual-use technologies. It covers the Export Administration Regulations, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, and the interagency process.
For this report, the authors examined the current and potential future states of export control regulations on AI and UAS technologies; analyzed how current regulations are effective, inadequate, or even detrimental; and assessed how insights on AI and UAS export controls might be applicable to creating a system of export controls for AI and UASs that balances competition with China and securely guided proliferation of AI and UAS technologies.
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